What’s up with the real estate market? In Boulder County prices for single family homes are up 12 percent since last September, but down compared to August 2021. This is a continued decline in prices over the last few months. Will home values continue to erode? In my opinion, yes. The historical data since 2011 shows a constant upward trend, with a drastic uptick in home prices during the spring of this year compared to the price slope. I believe home prices will continue to decline until prices are once again in line with the historical slope.
In Boulder average sales prices were up slightly compared to August. This makes sense home prices in Boulder are close to the value the historical data indicates. And, prices in Boulder have already declined significantly from the highs of this past spring. Boulder continues to have a low inventory of homes for sale.
Erie prices never deviated much from the historical trend so I forecast home values there to continue their slight upward trend. The average increase in price of $43K since August validates this. And, with an average of only 22 days on market and only a 0.7 month’s supply of homes for sale, home sellers are still able to get their home sold without much undue stress.
Average home prices in Lafayette have seen some wild gyrations since 2011. This is likely due to the low number of homes sold so that a couple of high priced homes sold can throw the trend line out of whack. And, Lafayette like most of Boulder County saw a spike in home prices in the spring. The average sold price of $697,954 is a little below the trend line for Lafayette. I expect the average sales price to stay in this vicinity for a while with a slight uptick.
Longmont has become a very popular place to live. For a while people were happy to get into a home in Longmont, no matter its condition. Now buyers are more discriminating. With a lot of older homes coming to market that haven’t been updated to modern trends, this has pulled the average sales price for single family homes in Longmont down from the highs of this past spring (but down only $31K compared to August). Longmont home prices have been above the historical price trend so a continued decrease of the average sales price is expected to continue, especially for dated homes.
The turnover of home in Louisville is very low with only 11 selling in September. Louisville, like Lafayette has seen huge gyrations in the average sales price due to the low number of homes being sold. The average sales price dropped $168K. Perhaps smaller homes sold in September than in August, dragging the average price down. With only a 0.5-month supply of homes on the market Louisville is definitely a seller’s market!
Boulder County continues to have a huge lack of homes for sale. Buyers are more savvy than they were a few months ago and will bargain with sellers to get into their next home. Multiple offers are still a ‘thing”, but only for updated houses. Home prices have dropped since springtime and are approaching values that put them back on the historical price trend line.
People who are thinking about selling, but are worried about selling their home before they can purchase their next one need to become creative. There are several options they can employ:
1) Have a Post-Closing-Occupancy-Agreement which enables them to rent back their home for up to sixty days, giving them more time to find their new home.
2) Have a Rent Back Agreement where they rent their home from the buyer until they can move into their next home.
3) Rent a place for the time between the sale of their home and the purchase of their next place.
4) Buy a place and sell their home after they have made their new purchase.
Are you thinking about buying or selling a home this fall? With the low inventory of homes for sale now is a great time to list your home.